Festivals

Will the ICONSIAM NYE countdown draw 500K+ people?

45%+6
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ222 if YES wins

33%56%

Volume

Ɓ196K

Traders

121

Liquidity

Ɓ24K

Closes

10 Oct 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.45
CostƁ4.50
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +122%
payout multiple2.22x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.67

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 45% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 6 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 59%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

64%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

PS

@peaks · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

NA

@nokairin · 2d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

PS

@peaks · 2d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

YR

@yodrak · 2d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

NA

@nokairin · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

KW

@kanya.w · 3d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

NS

@napat_trades · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#new-year#countdown