Festivals

Phuket Vegetarian Festival: all 9 shrines holding street processions?

76%-7
13d left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ132 if YES wins

64%87%

Volume

Ɓ318K

Traders

144

Liquidity

Ɓ38K

Closes

7 Sept 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.76
CostƁ7.60
Trading feeƁ0.13
Max payoutƁ10 · +32%
payout multiple1.32x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ7.73

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 76% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 7 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 76%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

85%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

RM

@ratchata · 15h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 2d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

MP

@minta.p · 2d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

RM

@ratchata · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

BT

@banktawan · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Related news

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#vegetarian-festival#phuket