Festivals

Loy Krathong 2027: Sukhothai attendance above 200K?

41%+4
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ244 if YES wins

31%54%

Volume

Ɓ26K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.1K

Closes

8 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.41
CostƁ4.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +144%
payout multiple2.44x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 41% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 4 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 86%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

59%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

RM

@ratchata · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

IK

@isankid · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

NS

@napat_trades · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

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Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#loy-krathong#sukhothai