Festivals

Will Songkran 2027 set a record tourism value?

34%+4
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ294 if YES wins

25%45%

Volume

Ɓ10K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.2K

Closes

12 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.34
CostƁ3.40
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +194%
payout multiple2.94x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.56

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 34% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 4 pts on social media trends. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 67%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

77%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

AB

@arthitb · 12h

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

AB

@arthitb · 23h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

AB

@arthitb · 1d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MS

@malisrisuk · 3d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

IK

@isankid · 3d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

MR

@mayr · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

Festivals· Chiang Mai News· 2d

Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#songkran#revenue