Weather

Will Thailand record its hottest year ever?

40%-3
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ250 if YES wins

23%48%

Volume

Ɓ472K

Traders

406

Liquidity

Ɓ57K

Closes

19 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.40
CostƁ4.00
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +150%
payout multiple2.50x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.17

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 40% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 3 pts on a regional model run. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 70%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

73%
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability

Key developments

  1. The latest satellite imagery shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

SP

@somchai_p · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

IK

@isankid · 1d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

FS

@fahsai · 1d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

NA

@nokairin · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

TP

@tle.p · 3d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

SP

@somchai_p · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

BT

@banktawan · 4d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher
#climate