Weather

A tropical storm to make landfall in Thailand this season?

21%-7
2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ476 if YES wins

13%37%

Volume

Ɓ25K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.0K

Closes

20 Nov 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.21
CostƁ2.10
Trading feeƁ0.12
Max payoutƁ10 · +376%
payout multiple4.76x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.22

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 21% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 7 pts on the latest satellite imagery. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 61%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

60%
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability

Key developments

  1. Monsoon monitoring shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

BK

@bua.k · 20h

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

BT

@banktawan · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

FS

@fahsai · 1d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

TK

@tanawatk · 2d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

TP

@tle.p · 3d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher
#storm