Weather

Chiang Mai to drop below 10°C this December?

58%-8
4mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ172 if YES wins

48%74%

Volume

Ɓ646K

Traders

333

Liquidity

Ɓ78K

Closes

30 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.58
CostƁ5.80
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +72%
payout multiple1.72x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.97

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 58% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 8 pts on monsoon monitoring. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 63%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

76%
  • Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability

Key developments

  1. Monsoon monitoring shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

MR

@mayr · 16h

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

TP

@tle.p · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

SP

@somchai_p · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

SP

@somchai_p · 2d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •Last year set a similar precedent in the same window
#cool-season