Weather

Bangkok September rainfall above 350mm?

42%+1
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

29%50%

Volume

Ɓ138K

Traders

61

Liquidity

Ɓ17K

Closes

10 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 1 pts on an updated TMD forecast. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 72%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

91%
  • Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings

Key developments

  1. An updated TMD forecast shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

PS

@peaks · 1h

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

BT

@banktawan · 9h

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

RM

@ratchata · 1d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 2d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

CS

@chaisaetae · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NS

@napat_trades · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

MP

@minta.p · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

TK

@tanawatk · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Last year set a similar precedent in the same window
#rain