Weather

Frost reported in northern Thailand this winter?

51%-4
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ196 if YES wins

43%65%

Volume

Ɓ54K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ6.5K

Closes

17 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.51
CostƁ5.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +96%
payout multiple1.96x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 51% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 4 pts on a regional model run. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 63%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

79%
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings

Key developments

  1. An updated TMD forecast shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

BK

@bua.k · 20h

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

NS

@napat_trades · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

WK

@wink · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

BK

@bua.k · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

MR

@mayr · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

WK

@wink · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 5d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Last year set a similar precedent in the same window
#north#winter