Politics

Will a constitutional referendum be held before 2027?

25%+0
2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ400 if YES wins

17%44%

Volume

Ɓ22K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ2.7K

Closes

30 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.25
CostƁ2.50
Trading feeƁ0.13
Max payoutƁ10 · +300%
payout multiple4.00x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.63

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 25% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 0 pts on a cabinet reshuffle rumor. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 58%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

90%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. A parliamentary session shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

BT

@banktawan · 1h

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

GL

@grace.l · 1d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

WK

@wink · 1d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NP

@nongploy · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

BT

@banktawan · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#referendum