Politics

Will cannabis be re-listed as a controlled substance in 2026?

56%-1
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ179 if YES wins

43%66%

Volume

Ɓ153K

Traders

113

Liquidity

Ɓ18K

Closes

21 Sept 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.56
CostƁ5.60
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +79%
payout multiple1.79x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.77

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 56% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 1 pts on a new opinion poll. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 72%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

63%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. A parliamentary session shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

AB

@arthitb · 1d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

TP

@tle.p · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

CS

@chaisaetae · 5d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

IK

@isankid · 5d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#cannabis#health