Politics

Will cannabis be re-listed as a controlled substance in 2027?

38%+5
4mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ263 if YES wins

24%47%

Volume

Ɓ296K

Traders

235

Liquidity

Ɓ35K

Closes

31 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.38
CostƁ3.80
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +163%
payout multiple2.63x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.96

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 38% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 5 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 59%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

86%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 1d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

BK

@bua.k · 2d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

BT

@banktawan · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MR

@mayr · 2d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

NP

@nongploy · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MS

@malisrisuk · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

SP

@somchai_p · 5d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#cannabis#health