Crypto

Bitcoin above $120,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

40%-3
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ250 if YES wins

29%51%

Volume

Ɓ30K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.6K

Closes

31 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.40
CostƁ4.00
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +150%
payout multiple2.50x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.17

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 40% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 3 pts on a whale wallet movement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 76%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

59%
  • This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price

Key developments

  1. Fed commentary shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

CS

@chaisaetae · 13h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

WK

@wink · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • •Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • •Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
#btc#price