Crypto

Bitcoin above $100,000 on Oct 31, 2026?

51%-4
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ196 if YES wins

38%60%

Volume

Ɓ11K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.3K

Closes

8 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.51
CostƁ5.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +96%
payout multiple1.96x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 51% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 4 pts on a large ETF flow print. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 76%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

68%
  • This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%

Key developments

  1. Fed commentary shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

YR

@yodrak · 7h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

MS

@malisrisuk · 23h

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NP

@nongploy · 2d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

TP

@tle.p · 3d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

TP

@tle.p · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

YR

@yodrak · 4d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

MR

@mayr · 5d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

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Related news

Crypto· CoinDesk· 7h

Bitcoin reclaims $100K as ETF inflows hit weekly record

Crypto· Bangkok Post· 1d

SEC mulls over retail crypto rules revision

Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • •Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • •Institutional custody approvals continue to expand across Asia
#btc#price