Tourism

Will Suvarnabhumi rank in Asia's top-10 airports this year?

43%-1
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ233 if YES wins

32%53%

Volume

Ɓ416K

Traders

577

Liquidity

Ɓ50K

Closes

28 Sept 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.43
CostƁ4.30
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +133%
payout multiple2.33x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.47

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 43% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 1 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 65%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

81%
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

PS

@peaks · 2h

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

NA

@nokairin · 22h

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

TK

@tanawatk · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

PN

@ploykn · 1d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

IK

@isankid · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

BT

@banktawan · 3d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

AB

@arthitb · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

Related markets

Tourism

Will a new airline launch Thai domestic operations in 2026?

54%-5

308 · Ɓ547K

2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ185 if YES wins

Tourism

Will Chinese arrivals exceed 8M this year?

42%+4

95 · Ɓ186K

7mo left

Tourism

Will Phuket international arrivals exceed 12M this year?

33%-2

48 · Ɓ50K

5mo left

Tourism

Will Thailand extend visa-free stays to 90 days?

31%+3

336 · Ɓ658K

10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ323 if YES wins

Tourism

Will Thailand reach 40M arrivals in 2026?

41%-9

48 · Ɓ11K

10mo left

Tourism

Will Thailand reach 40M arrivals in 2027?

41%-9

48 · Ɓ20K

7mo left

Related news

Tourism· TAT Newsroom· 19h

Thailand targets 40M tourists with new campaign

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: TAT arrivals data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#airport#ranking