Tourism

Will Chinese arrivals exceed 8M this year?

42%+4
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

32%56%

Volume

Ɓ186K

Traders

95

Liquidity

Ɓ22K

Closes

7 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 4 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 85%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

90%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

FS

@fahsai · 1h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

TP

@tle.p · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

WK

@wink · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

BK

@bua.k · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

WK

@wink · 5d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

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Related news

Tourism· TAT Newsroom· 19h

Thailand targets 40M tourists with new campaign

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: TAT arrivals data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#china