Tourism

Will Phuket international arrivals exceed 12M this year?

33%-2
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ303 if YES wins

22%47%

Volume

Ɓ50K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ6.0K

Closes

25 Jan 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.33
CostƁ3.30
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +203%
payout multiple3.03x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.45

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 33% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 62%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

70%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

YR

@yodrak · 1d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

MR

@mayr · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

SP

@somchai_p · 2d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

KW

@kanya.w · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

SP

@somchai_p · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MS

@malisrisuk · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

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Related news

Tourism· TAT Newsroom· 19h

Thailand targets 40M tourists with new campaign

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: TAT arrivals data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#phuket