Economy

Gold price up on 29 Aug?

58%-2
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ172 if YES wins

42%69%

Volume

Ɓ281K

Traders

359

Liquidity

Ɓ34K

Closes

9 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.58
CostƁ5.80
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +72%
payout multiple1.72x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.97

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 58% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on the latest BOT minutes. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 71%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

73%
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this

Key developments

  1. The latest BOT minutes shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

MP

@minta.p · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

TK

@tanawatk · 5d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

BK

@bua.k · 5d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

AB

@arthitb · 5d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
#daily