Economy

Gold price up on 25 Aug?

53%+1
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ189 if YES wins

45%67%

Volume

Ɓ13K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.6K

Closes

29 Sept 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.53
CostƁ5.30
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +89%
payout multiple1.89x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.47

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 53% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 1 pts on a trade data release. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 79%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

61%
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar

Key developments

  1. A policy announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

TP

@tle.p · 1d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

MP

@minta.p · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

MR

@mayr · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

MP

@minta.p · 5d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
#daily