World

Will global EV sales grow 20%+ in 2026?

59%+6
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ169 if YES wins

51%75%

Volume

Ɓ14K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.6K

Closes

30 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.59
CostƁ5.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +69%
payout multiple1.69x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 59% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 6 pts on a policy announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 60%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

66%
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this

Key developments

  1. The latest BOT minutes shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

MS

@malisrisuk · 5h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

SP

@somchai_p · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

KW

@kanya.w · 2d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Reuters / AP wire confirmation. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •Policy easing is beginning to support domestic demand
#ev