Football

Will BG Pathum United finish in the top two?

40%-5
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ250 if YES wins

30%49%

Volume

Ɓ257K

Traders

178

Liquidity

Ɓ31K

Closes

30 Mar 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.40
CostƁ4.00
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +150%
payout multiple2.50x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.17

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 40% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on an injury announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 78%.

Bull case

  • Key players return from injury; full-strength squad confirmed in training
  • Recent head-to-head record clearly favors the 'Yes' side

Bear case

  • Fixture congestion across three competitions raises rotation risk
  • Away form has dipped with only one win in the last five

Confidence

86%
  • The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome
  • Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points

Key developments

  1. An injury announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

PS

@peaks · 21h

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

NS

@napat_trades · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

NA

@nokairin · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

Related markets

Football

Bangkok United to beat Ratchaburi FC in the league meeting?

56%+2

154 · Ɓ191K

1y left

Football

BG Pathum United to beat Chonburi FC in the league meeting?

57%+4

237 · Ɓ383K

7mo left

Football

BG Pathum United to beat Lamphun Warriors in the league meeting?

49%+2

148 · Ɓ299K

1y left

Football

BG Pathum United to beat Muangthong United in the league meeting?

59%-5

48 · Ɓ77K

8mo left

Football

Buriram United to beat Bangkok United in the league meeting?

41%-4

48 · Ɓ49K

8mo left

Football

Buriram United to beat Ratchaburi FC in the league meeting?

57%-7

48 · Ɓ21K

1y left

Related news

Football· Siam Sport· 1d

War Elephants name squad for ASEAN Championship semi

Football· Siam Sport· 10h

Buriram extend lead at the top after derby win

Resolution criteria

Resolves on the official result published by the competition organizer (league, AFC, FIFA, or ONE Championship).

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official league results · FIFA/Thai League. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome
  • •Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • •Home advantage has historically been worth ~8 points in this fixture
#thai-league