Thai Celebs

Will a Thai star be cast in a Hollywood franchise this year?

23%-6
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ435 if YES wins

14%37%

Volume

Ɓ80K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ9.6K

Closes

13 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.23
CostƁ2.30
Trading feeƁ0.12
Max payoutƁ10 · +335%
payout multiple4.35x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.42

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 23% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 6 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 75%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

69%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

WK

@wink · 17h

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

MS

@malisrisuk · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

TP

@tle.p · 3d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

BT

@banktawan · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NA

@nokairin · 5d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Verified artist statements · major outlets. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#hollywood