Thai Celebs

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Will a Thai celebrity win an international acting award in 2026?

36%+7
5d left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ278 if YES wins

19%44%

Volume

Ɓ10K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.2K

Closes

30 Aug 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.36
CostƁ3.60
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +178%
payout multiple2.78x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.76

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 36% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 7 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 90%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

89%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

PN

@ploykn · 13h

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

AB

@arthitb · 16h

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

WK

@wink · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

TK

@tanawatk · 4d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Verified artist statements · major outlets. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#awards