Muay Thai

Will a foreign fighter win a major Thai stadium belt this year?

28%-2
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ357 if YES wins

14%36%

Volume

Ɓ33K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.9K

Closes

27 Sept 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.28
CostƁ2.80
Trading feeƁ0.14
Max payoutƁ10 · +257%
payout multiple3.57x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.94

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 28% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on the weekend's results. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 66%.

Bull case

  • Key players return from injury; full-strength squad confirmed in training
  • Recent head-to-head record clearly favors the 'Yes' side

Bear case

  • Fixture congestion across three competitions raises rotation risk
  • Away form has dipped with only one win in the last five

Confidence

88%
  • Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • Lineup news tends to move this market 5–10 points in matchday week

Key developments

  1. A surprise lineup change shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

PN

@ploykn · 7h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NA

@nokairin · 16h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

TK

@tanawatk · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MS

@malisrisuk · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

IK

@isankid · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

MR

@mayr · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

NS

@napat_trades · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

PN

@ploykn · 5d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on the official result published by the competition organizer (league, AFC, FIFA, or ONE Championship).

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official stadium result sheets. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • •Lineup news tends to move this market 5–10 points in matchday week
  • •Home advantage has historically been worth ~8 points in this fixture
#stadium