Bangkok

More than 20 flood days in Bangkok this rainy season?

29%-6
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ345 if YES wins

11%37%

Volume

Ɓ63K

Traders

80

Liquidity

Ɓ7.5K

Closes

3 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.29
CostƁ2.90
Trading feeƁ0.14
Max payoutƁ10 · +245%
payout multiple3.45x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.04

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 29% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 6 pts on a parliamentary session. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 62%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

75%
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A new opinion poll shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

YR

@yodrak · 2d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

NP

@nongploy · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

PS

@peaks · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

PT

@preawt · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

YR

@yodrak · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

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Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

Related news

Transit· Bangkok Post· 1d

Orange Line monorail test runs begin on new section

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Economic tailwinds reduce the incentive for any defection before the vote
#flood