Bangkok

Bangkok PM2.5 to exceed 100 µg/m³ in January 2026?

41%+8
3mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ244 if YES wins

33%54%

Volume

Ɓ143K

Traders

110

Liquidity

Ɓ17K

Closes

20 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.41
CostƁ4.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +144%
payout multiple2.44x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 41% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 8 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 66%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

79%
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. Coalition negotiations shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

SP

@somchai_p · 13h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

YR

@yodrak · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

IK

@isankid · 2d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

FS

@fahsai · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

PN

@ploykn · 3d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 3d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

TP

@tle.p · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

AB

@arthitb · 5d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#pollution#winter