Entertainment

Will a Thai lakorn break a 5% national TV rating this year?

49%-4
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ204 if YES wins

41%65%

Volume

Ɓ273K

Traders

136

Liquidity

Ɓ33K

Closes

6 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.49
CostƁ4.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +104%
payout multiple2.04x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 49% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 4 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 78%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

91%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

AB

@arthitb · 19h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

PS

@peaks · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MS

@malisrisuk · 4d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

PT

@preawt · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

PN

@ploykn · 5d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official award/chart announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#lakorn#tv